Outlook on 2025 megatrends for online classifieds markets

As a new year full of economic challenges and uncertainties begins, Joreca takes stock of the dynamics to expect in 2025 for the main real estate and automotive classifieds markets in Europe, North America, and Latin America. In addition to this first trend, we have added a focus of the four markets where competition is likely to be fierce this year. Finally, we review the list of over 20 major sites that could be sold in the next 12 months.

What dynamics should be anticipated in the main real estate and automotive markets?

As in the past year (see the methodological outline in the “Marketplaces: Four main different contexts” box ), Joreca has used its more than 10 years of experience and data to anticipate the evolution of the supply of listings and the pressure from advertisers in the main markets in America and Europe.

Potential “Bad Times” markets

An important point of intention compared to last year is the number of potential "bad times". A fairly classic pendulum swing, however, the fact that the declines in supply and the number of active publishing professionals, particularly in the automotive sector (Brazil, Germany) but also in real estate one (Brazil again and Italy), are likely to significantly impact all market players.

Potential “Winner takes all” markets

In parallel, we also note more situations where the winner could take it “all”. More particularly in markets with already very clearly established leaders such as the automotive sector in the UK and France. Even more interesting are similar market trends in the more contested real estate market in France.

Potential “Happy times”

Real estate markets in the UK, US, and the Italian car market – to a certain extent – may experience a positive 2025. Volumes are up again thanks to a gradual sales rotation decrease. In search of greater exposure, as well as increasing the number of professional advertisers, should see more investment in marketing. The numbers have remained stable for these markets or have even risen over the last 12 months, and thus look set to continue their upward trend again this year.

Potential “Risky times”

In stark opposition to these above-mentioned markets, the German real estate market, as well as the Canadian, Spanish, and even the US auto sectors, may encounter some bumpy time ahead in 2025. While inventories are going up, the number of active advertisers, in contrast, is decreasing, potentially and significantly putting more pressure on local N2 or N3 marketplaces.

The 4 markets to watch closely in 2024

Beyond the dynamics specific to the demand and supply, the game and the reorganization of players can completely reshuffle the cards. Between others, four of the world's largest classifieds markets could thus be completely disrupted by competition in 2024.

Real Estate in the UK

With Costar's effective acquisition of OnTheMarket in 2024, the UK real estate market has experienced a real shake-up. The effects were not long in coming, with OnTheMarket catching up in less than 12 months with Zoopla, number two in the market in terms of active agents. If we add the rumors of the potential sale of the undisputed market leader Rightmove following its aborted takeover bid by the Australian REA (see below), we can say that many potential structural changes can still occur in the UK in 2025.

Real Estate in France

With Leboncoin almost officially on the market and, potentially, its main competitor, SeLoger, following the same path (see both bellow), the quite competitive French market may move in 2025. Leboncoin has thus increased its lead in the number of agents compared to its main competitor while launching a vast operation in the Paris area, the last region where SeLoger is still the undisputed leader. We should not forget the pushing N3 BienIci, belonging to the local largest agency networks, that could also animate the market in 2025.

Automotive in Canada

Relatively under the radar in recent years, the automotive classifieds market in Canada is now making headlines! Between the now effective sale of Autotrader.ca to the German AutoScout24 and the very likely sale of Kijiji, the market should move in 2025. If we add the currently very strong competition from Cargurus and the very close positions between the three leaders, it will be very interesting to observe the next few months in this market.

Automotive in Brazil

For a long time, the automotive market in Brazil was summarized as a duopoly between two bank affiliates: Webmotors (Santander) and iCarros (Itau). Then OLX, a JV between Prosus and Adevinta, made its place. For the past two years, it has been the pure player Mobiauto and, for a few months, Napista (Banco do Brasil) that have made their mark. In the meantime, Webmotors was acquired by the Australian Carsales to spice up an ultra-competitive 2025.

Towards a new wave of leading portals for sale

After an initial wave of purchases between 2019 and 2021, the market has seen an impressive number of transactions over the last months. Frome October 2023, to the end of 2023 no fewer than 3 major players have changed hands, either specialized in real estate (OnTheMarket and Idealista), or generalist yet with a strong real estate component (Adevinta). Although only partially, we can also add to this list the acquisition by General Atlantic of a minority stake (24%) in Funda, the Netherlands' leading real estate website.

This wave of N°1 in their markets sales could be followed by a second phase of N°2 takeovers. On September 19 2024, KKR confirmed the shareholder restructuring at Axel Springer. A move that will lead to a division of the Group's assets, with its classified division, Aviv Group and Stepstone in Employment, being 100% taken over by the private equity fund.

Whilst there is no current indication that such an operation will take place, it will be interesting to see how the Aviv Group would be valued. Focused on real estate, this player is second in Germany - its home market - with the Immowelt/Immonet pairing.

In terms of agents, the position is the same in France, with the constellation of sites formed by the SeLoger group. It should be noted, however, that in this country the gap with the leader is much smaller than in Germany, and revenue per customer is higher than its local competitors. Only Immoweb in Belgium is the clear number 1 of this European giant.

A similar question arises for Zoopla in the UK. Faced with the takeover of number 3 OnTheMarket by the ambitious Costar Group and, potentially, the sale of Rightmove to the REA giant, what will be the reaction of the Silver Lake fund that bought the site in 2018? Similarly: what would be the value of Spanish publisher Vocento's Pisos.com, one of the only No. 3 sites with a sizeable market share in Europe?

Other marketplaces that made the headlines in 2024 could also come back to the font of the scene in 2025. Last October, stock listed Rightmove refused the takeover offer formulated by REA group. But facing a potentially fast changing UK real estate market and the result of Adevinta potential real after being delisted could change N°1 UK property site shareholders minds. Indeed, even not official, Adevinta could be for sale slightly more than 1 year (Nov. 2023) after being acquired by Blackrock and Permira. Our last Joreca Insight give more details about how the two funds could investments could maximize their $13 billion investment (cf. What is the valuation for each Adevinta Key portals?)

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Marketplaces: Four main different contexts

At Joreca, drawing upon our wealth of more than 10 years of experience, we recognize that during periods of heightened market tension, marketplaces have the potential to capitalize on their strategic positioning. Acting as the intermediary between sellers striving to distinguish their offerings in an increasingly competitive landscape, and discerning buyers who require more persuasion, our services become pivotal and even more valuable.

In other words, when the market inventory size grows in tandem with the number of dealers, marketplaces likewise find themselves in a favorable business context, allowing for price increases and providing room for challengers. Conversely, a decline in both key performance indicators signal a potential global decline for marketplace businesses. On the other hand, market size and the number of advertisers evolving in different directions reveals uncertain contexts for marketplaces.

A drop in the number of dealers coupled with a simultaneous growth in the number of listings may signify a market concentration within larger dealerships, bolstering the position of large marketplaces whilst potentially weakening smaller ones. An increase in market automation, with more dealers but fewer listings, may lead to a reduction in spending per dealer, impacting the average revenue per advertiser.

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This article was written using Joreca’s data, public information, and expert opinion. Under no circumstances does this article constitute a solicitation, offer, opinion, approval nor recommendation by Joreca, to buy or sell any company share, nor does it provide legal, tax, accounting or investment advice, nor services regarding the profitability or suitability of any security or investment.