Classifieds at a Crossroads: How 2026 May Reshape Market Leadership and Valuations Worldwide

After several years of adjustment, 2026 is emerging as an important year for automotive and real estate marketplaces worldwide. Based on more than 15 years of data and market observation, Joreca’s analysis highlights diverging trajectories across regions, with some markets returning to growth while others enter more uncertain phases. Changes in inventory levels, advertiser behavior, and competitive intensity are reshaping market dynamics in Europe and the Americas. Together, these trends offer valuable insight into how platforms, investors, and industry leaders may position themselves in the year ahead.

Brighter Prospects Ahead for Most Major Classified Markets

As it has done over the past two years (see the methodological framework outlined in the box “Marketplaces: Four Distinct Market Contexts”), Joreca has once again leveraged more than 15 years of proprietary data and market expertise to anticipate changes in listing supply and advertiser pressure across the main classified markets in Europe and the Americas.

This forward-looking analysis focuses on the evolution of inventories and the number of active professional advertisers—two key indicators that largely determine the competitive intensity and revenue potential of marketplace platforms.

Markets Facing Potential “Bad Times”

One notable shift compared with last year is the increasing number of markets that could enter a “bad times” phase. This development reflects a relatively classic cyclical correction. However, the scale of the expected downturn in certain regions is more concerning.

Declines in listing supply and in the number of active professional advertisers—particularly in the automotive sector in Canada and in real estate in Brazil—are likely to exert significant pressure on the entire ecosystem. Marketplaces, advertisers, and intermediaries alike may face reduced liquidity, lower monetization potential, and heightened competition for demand.

Markets Entering “Risky Times”

Some markets appear to be moving into a more uncertain, or “risky,” phase. This is notably the case for the Spanish automotive sector heading into 2026. While vehicle inventories are increasing, the number of active advertisers is declining.

This imbalance could materially increase competitive pressure on second- and third-tier platforms, which are typically more vulnerable to shifts in advertiser concentration. In such an environment, only the strongest players may be able to sustain pricing power and advertiser loyalty.

“Winner Takes All” Scenarios

In parallel, Joreca’s analysis highlights a growing number of markets where dynamics increasingly favor a “winner takes all” outcome. This is particularly evident in automotive classifieds in France and Germany, where market leadership is already firmly established and barriers to entry remain high.

More surprisingly, similar dynamics are emerging in the more competitive and fragmented real estate market in Spain. Here, consolidation and scale effects could rapidly reinforce the position of leading platforms, to the detriment of smaller challengers.

The Return of “Happy Times”

Perhaps the most striking trend for 2026 is the large number of markets likely to experience a return to more favorable conditions. In real estate, this applies to the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Italy. In automotive classifieds, Italy, the US, and the UK also stand out as markets with positive momentum.

In these countries, volumes are rising again, supported by a gradual decline in sales rotation and renewed demand for visibility among professional advertisers. As competition for exposure intensifies, increased marketing investment is expected to follow.

Over the past 12 months, key indicators in these markets have either stabilized or resumed growth. As a result, they appear well positioned to continue their upward trajectory throughout 2026, marking a clear shift toward more optimistic market conditions.

Four Markets to Watch Closely in 2026

Real Estate in Spain

The Spanish real estate classifieds market has been profoundly reshaped over the past year. The acquisition of Fotocasa-Habitaclia, formerly the number two player, by EQT, followed almost immediately by its resale to Scout24, came on top of the acquisition of pisos.com, the former number three, by Italian leader Immobiliare. These moves have dramatically reshuffled the competitive landscape.

As a result, Spain has become one of the most closely watched real estate markets heading into 2026. Early signs already suggest that competitive dynamics will evolve rapidly, making the coming months particularly instructive for the wider European classifieds ecosystem.

One key question will be how fast Scout24, via its Spanish platform, can learn and adapt outside its core German market. Germany has long been its stronghold, with a mature and highly profitable model, but Spain presents different user behaviors, agency structures, and competitive pressures.

At the same time, industry observers will be watching closely to see whether Immobiliare. can attempt in Spain what local leader Idealista once did to them in Italy: building an ultra-competitive number two position capable of seriously challenging the market leader. If successful, this would confirm Immobiliare’s ability to export its playbook beyond its domestic market and could further intensify competition in Southern Europe.

Automotive in the United States

ile it has attracted less attention from the trade press in recent years, the US automotive classifieds market has experienced significant underlying turbulence. The sector has now clearly moved past the period dominated by B2B platform acquisition and C2B strategies, particularly since CarGurus refocused on its core classifieds business after spinning off or de-emphasizing ancillary activities.

This renewed strategic focus has delivered tangible results, and the key question for 2026 will be whether CarGurus’ growth trajectory can be sustained beyond the current phase. More broadly, the real battle to watch will be the evolving competition between Cars.com and Autotrader.com.

Autotrader.com, once the undisputed market leader, has pursued a strategy of diversification and value-chain expansion that inspired many international peers. However, that very strategy now appears to have weakened its dominance, in its core classifieds activity. As Carfax starts checking heavily the markety and Cars.com continues to consolidate its position, 2026 may mark a turning point in how leadership is defined in the US auto market.

Real Estate in France

France remains a strategic real estate market and a key barometer for the valuation of Europe’s leading classifieds groups. Leboncoin.fr, owned by Adevinta, is widely regarded as the group’s most valuable asset. It remains the clear leader in traffic and agency coverage, yet it faces growing expectations.

In 2026, Leboncoin will need to demonstrate its ability to further strengthen its presence in critical markets, particularly the Paris region. Success there would reinforce its leadership narrative and directly support valuation expectations in the event of a future sale.

At the same time, SeLoger.com, which has undergone multiple management changes and strategic shifts under Aviv Group, faces a decisive year. After a period of relative decline, it must regain momentum and close part of the gap with Leboncoin. As Aviv’s largest asset, its performance in 2026 will be crucial if KKR, its owner, intends to position the group for a potential exit.

Automotive in the United Kingdom

Traditionally stable and predictable, much like its American counterpart, the UK automotive market may surprise in 2026. Following the launch of its “Deal Builder” new product in November 2025 that was poorly received by the market, Auto Trader UK has, for the first time in many years, faced sustained criticism from its historically loyal customer base.

This reputational setback raises an important question: could Auto Trader’s near-total dominance be weakened? The timing is particularly sensitive, as competitors are increasingly aggressive. Motors.co.uk, now reinforced by the acquisition of the Cazoo brand and site, is investing heavily in growth. CarGurus, the current number two, continues to gain traction through aggressive pricing strategies.

The Next Wave of Marketplace Transactions Worldwide

If 2025 proved to be a landmark year for M&A activity—particularly in Europe—2026 may be even more eventful. The past year saw major transactions, including Adevinta’s Spanish asset sales, the resale of auto site La Centrale in France, deals involving the Boats Group, and the surprise year-end acquisition of Dutch number two Autotrack / Gaspedaal by AutoScout24.

Adevinta: The Center of Gravity

 

The breakup of Adevinta is already well underway. After the sale of its Spanish operations at a valuation approaching €2 billion, attention is now turning to mobile.de in Germany, the undisputed German automotive leader. Market rumors increasingly point toward either an IPO or a sale to a large private equity fund.

Beyond Germany, Paris based Leboncoin remains the group’s crown jewel. While ultra-dominant in automotive classifieds, its real estate leadership is still considered less absolute. Late-2025 management changes initiated by its owners - Permira and Blackstone - suggest a clear objective: maximize operational performance ahead of potential divestments.

Other assets potentially on the block include Marktplaats in the Netherlands, 2dehands in Belgium, and Subito in Italy. Subito appears more fragile, lagging as number two in automotive and number four in real estate, and may require further repositioning to optimize its valuation.

Vend and Aviv: Different Paths, Same Question

Schibsted, Adevinta’s former parent, has regrouped its remaining marketplaces under the Vend company. With several Scandinavian assets enjoying quasi-monopolistic positions, the group could also be a candidate for a future sale. Valuation, however, remains an open question, particularly given the more competitive Finnish market.

Aviv Group, fully acquired by KKR in December 2024, could begin a country-by-country divestment strategy as early as 2026 or 2027. Positions vary widely: Immoweb in Belgium is a clear leader SeLoger is almost number one in France, while in Germany, Immowelt remains a distant number two. Improving profitability and revenue per agent, rather than pure market share, will likely be the priority under the new management team.

New Buyers, Old Faces

Private equity remains central to the story. Funds such as Apax, Cinven, EQT, Hellman & Friedman, Blackstone, and Permira have demonstrated a repeatable ability to acquire, scale, and exit marketplace assets.

More recently, industrial players have begun to re-emerge. OLX’s high-profile acquisition of LaCentrale for over €1 billion could signal a renewed appetite for strategic consolidation, particularly in Western Europe, where several assets may still be undervalued.

In short, 2026 is shaping up as a pivotal year—one that will redefine market leadership, valuations, and ownership across global digital marketplaces.

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Marketplaces: Four main different contexts

At Joreca, drawing upon our wealth of more than 10 years of experience, we recognize that during periods of heightened market tension, marketplaces have the potential to capitalize on their strategic positioning. Acting as the intermediary between sellers striving to distinguish their offerings in an increasingly competitive landscape, and discerning buyers who require more persuasion, our services become pivotal and even more valuable.

In other words, when the market inventory size grows in tandem with the number of dealers, marketplaces likewise find themselves in a favorable business context, allowing for price increases and providing room for challengers. Conversely, a decline in both key performance indicators signal a potential global decline for marketplace businesses.  

On the other hand, market size and the number of advertisers evolving in different directions reveals uncertain contexts for marketplaces. A drop in the number of dealers coupled with a simultaneous growth in the number of listings may signify a market concentration within larger dealerships, bolstering the position of large marketplaces whilst potentially weakening smaller ones. An increase in market automation, with more dealers but fewer listings, may lead to a reduction in spending per dealer, impacting the average revenue per advertiser.

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Disclaimer: This article was written using Joreca’s data, public information, and expert opinion. Under no circumstances does this article constitute a solicitation, offer, opinion, approval nor recommendation by Joreca, to buy or sell any company share, nor does it provide legal, tax, accounting or investment advice, nor services regarding the profitability or suitability of any security or investment.